European Union predicted the worst
Now the ball is on Romania’s side…
Yesterday almost all the countries of European Union had their share of bad news. The European Commission released its prediction for the economic figures of all the countries and, like many others too, Romania’s figures have been revised in a very negative way, reaching a scenario that no one could expect even just few months ago.
Starting with the budget deficit of 2008, which closed to almost 5%, instead of the expected 1.5%, and the demolition of the State’s income (down 11% in December), the latest reality we live proved to us that things will be more difficult than we could expect. Now the E.U. commission talks about a GDP growth of just 1.75% in 2009 and 2.5% in 2010, not taking into consideration the Government’s forecast for 2.5% this year. It did the same with almost all the countries (my country Greece is expected by E.U. to have a GDP growth of 0.2%, while the authorities presented the state budget with estimation of 2.7%).
So, GDP will slowly increase, while in most of the countries it will be decreased. The private consumption will grow with just 2%, instead of 8% in 2008 and the investments will be increased by just 1.5%, far away from the 18% of 2008. Usually many people just compare the numbers and come up to conclusions. But I would like to point out to you something: If Romania will really see these figures coming, then we will not suffer as we expect to. Because a 2% raise of consumption means that it will not fall, yes it will grow slower, but it will not diminish, as most people are afraid. Same story with the investments. Growing less, means that still lots of money will be invested in economy. So, if these figures will be true, the sales of cars will be higher, not lower as they are now. But…
For me the most important message from European Union is that they don’t believe in the promises of the country. This is why I consider that now the ball has returned to the side of Romania, its Government and BNR, so as to prove to the Europeans that they are able to absorb the huge European funds which wait untouched for 2 years now and to strengthen the economy without destroying the future of the country. I think we all wait to see measures and policies which will urgently change the atmosphere in the real economy and also in the interbanking system, two big “patients” today…
This year will be really very interesting…