Romania 2010: Do we really want to reach bottom and stop falling?

Part 5

• to read part 1, click here
• to read part 2, click here
• to read part 3, click here
• to read part 4, click here
• to read part 6, click here
• to read part 7, click here
• to read part 8, click here

      During the last 40 days I have been presenting parts of my prediction for the year to come in many interviews or panels I participated. While stating my opinion, I received the feedback of tens of people, who agreed or disagreed with what I think. Meanwhile the world economic crisis prepares to enter in a new phase, with different characteristics than the previous two phases we all lived during the last 15 months. After the sudden collapse and the continuous drop, we enter now to the fragile stability with some drops of recovery. But these are for the rest of the world, not Romania…
      So, let me share with you what I expect to happen in Romania during 2010…

Part 5: The Romanian "New Deal":
The EURO adoption

Coming up: Political stability!
      Yesterday we checked the unstable economic environment around the world. Let us check what is coming up for Romania in the year to come…
      First of all, I expect that 2010 will finally bring political stability in the country. On Sunday, December 6^th, we will have the second round of Presidential elections and one of the two candidates will be chosen by the Romanian people to lead the country for the years to come.
      The new president will start his Presidency on December 21^st. Under normal circumstances, maximum by then, we will have a new Government, which will start working during the Christmas holidays and will really take the situation under control in January.
      Until the local elections of 2012, the country does not have any other upcoming political event to care for and the new Prime minister with his ministers will be able to focus on the necessary solutions that this country urgently needs. They will have to… try very hard so as to find new problems to fight for, except ofcourse the never ending battle for power…

Romania needs a "New Deal"
      Romania today needs a "New Deal", period. The country can not move on to the future following the same "strategy" it had in the past. Plus the majority of people are disappointed, frustrated, upset with their life and ready to blame everyone for their situation. The entrance in European Union did not solve their problems, as they were promised to, so they do not have a better future to hope for, a target to achieve. A realistic target always motivates a country and helps it to upgrade to the next level. Without it, things get loose…
      What can it be this time? It has to be something very important, a "New Deal" for the country, between its politicians and its citizens. Like the "New Deal" that Roosevelt introduced to USA before the Second World War and the country followed it for many decades. I don't refer to the measures that "New Deal" included, but mainly to its importance for American economy and society throughout the 20^th century.

The Romanian "New Deal": EURO adoption
      For me there is only one word that can become the target of the country for the years to come: EURO. Romania must enter in Eurozone as soon as possible. All people realize this, especially after the turbulences of the last 12 months. The "umbrella" of Eurozone is very important for the stability of the country and I think that it is the only target that people can accept to work hard for. In post modern societies and especially the Eastern European ones, all the other words have ended up being perceived as fake, empty… Prosperity, Growth, Happiness… they mean nothing for the people, as each of them "translates" them in a different way.
      But the replacement of Lei with EURO means a lot to all. This will allow the Government to undertake the necessary painful measures this year, in the name of EURO adoption. It will send a clear message to the markets, creating again the potential and the "positive scenario" that everyone needs when he thinks about choosing a place to invest in. And its accession in 2014 or 2015 will become the new milestone of Romanian recent history.

A challenging opportunity
      EURO adoption is not the solution for all problems ofcourse. It will also raise the prices, like it happened in the rest of Europe. It will also change forever the economic environment of the country, forcing it to be more productive and careful. With EURO as currency, the country will not be able to cover the lack of productivity by depreciating the value of Lei, as it happened many times in the past. This will bring Romania to a new level, from which there will be no way back.
      But all the above are not necessary bad. People usually behave better when they know that a serious mistake can cause to them very big trouble. The country will move to a new level, people will have more opportunities, a stronger currency in their pockets, the economic environment will be more stable. Every major progress hides inside a challenge and a risk. EURO adoption is "the next big thing" for Romania and I hope that politicians will realize it soon enough…

Tomorrow: First we should stop falling…