Romania 2010: Do we really want to reach bottom and stop falling?
Part 7
- to read part 1, click here
- to read part 2, click here
- to read part 3, click here
- to read part 4, click here
- to read part 5, click here
- to read part 6, click here
- to read part 8, click here
During the last 40 days I have been presenting parts of my prediction for the year to come in many interviews or panels I participated. While stating my opinion, I received the feedback of tens of people, who agreed or disagreed with what I think. Meanwhile the world economic crisis prepares to enter in a new phase, with different characteristics than the previous two phases we all lived during the last 15 months. After the sudden collapse and the continuous drop, we enter now to the fragile stability with some drops of recovery. But these are for the rest of the world, not Romania…
So, let me share with you what I expect to happen in Romania during 2010…
Part 7: 2010: Firstly we should
stop falling and then stabilize
The new Government must undertake measures
So, what is coming up? I strongly believe that the country must undertake measures, so as to stop falling! We say several stories, all of us, but the bottom line is that Romania continues dropping. Do not focus only on the official figures. In terms of real economy, things continue being very dark for almost all the companies and their forecast for 2010 is even darker. I speak with several directors and CEOs of multinational companies here in Bucharest. None of them wants to announce officially that in their budgets for next year they have included a "very negative" scenario, with very big fall of Lei. This is something which everyone refuses to state in public, but they are prepared and cautious in their private discussions.
The next logical steps, as I perceive them
As I wrote to you these days, the country must create a new target, a new vision for the people to work for. This can be only EURO adoption. So, after the elections of December, we will finally have a Government, one way or another. This Government should announce in public that EURO must become the "next big thing" for Romania, for the years to come. Also it should announce the real situation of economy, explaining to people that things are bad, really bad. As long as we continue this fairytale with the predictions of "growth to come in 2 months", "after Easter", "before Summer", "after the Summer", "after elections" and the story goes, people continue delaying the decision to accept reality, work harder and adopt to the new environment, expecting things to improve and the problems to be solved automatically.
If the Government will announce that the situation is difficult, but the potential is great (which is true) and that painful measures are necessary, on the name of EURO adoption and all the other minor targets meanwhile, I expect people to accept the situation, more or less. This announcement should be combined with many difficult measures, which will hurt at the beginning, but will boost the economy after. Will boost it for many years and will improve the lives of millions of people.
If new Government will undertake measures in the first 4 months of the year, we will stop falling and we will even see progress in the last quarter of the year
I know that I don't write things that people like reading or listening to, but I prefer being useful, than pleasant for a short period. If the next Government will undertake measures in the first 4 months of the year, then the impact of these will be to help economy to stop falling, during 2010. With this achievement as basis, we may even start watching progress in the second part of the year (and especially the last quarter). If we stop falling, we will break the vicious circle and we will be prepared for a sustainable growth, starting from 2011.
The country has really one of the best potentials around the world. This is not a nice comment, but my strong belief. Some seriousness and patience by everyone is necessary during 2010, so as to establish the reasons of the new growth for the years to come. I know that people are eager for fast results, but I hope that they will remember what happened after the fast results they had in the past. They paid the cost, 2 – 3 times more.
What may happen if the new Romanian Government will not undertake measures? I do not want to think about it, I do not want to believe that this can happen. I am sure that they will realize the historical moments we live in and they will try to move on to the future.
(Tomorrow: Do we REALLY want to stop falling?)