“Every problem is solved, the crisis is over”

This article was published on 12.01.2010

Greece: The top patient of European economy.

Romania: Ready to take the lead, once Greece will arrange its issues
I stayed in Greece during my (long) vacation and I had the time to relax and set my thoughts in order, after a very busy year end. Today Greece is the no.1 "patient" of European Union, with major financial problems, which require painful solutions, while its society balances between easy words of denial and the harsh ones of accepting the problem and undertaking measures to solve it. I love it when almost all my Romanian friends call, email or text me, showing me the bad words that Financial Times wrote for one more day, or letting me know that my mother country suffers. I love it because the second one in Europe, ready to take the lead once Greece settles its problems, is Romania!

Romania has one of the best economical potential growths in the world. But also it is still in a very deep problem, with major solutionsfor state's huge expenses to be awaited. Also there is a clear problem in the banking system, with loans being almost impossible to receive and unpaid loans to skyrocket. And, between you and me, if you check the reaction of all the ones who are responsible for the problem, they continue behaving exactly as they used to, thinking in the same way, refusing to accept that the trouble is ahead and not behind us. Expecting all the rest to "clean their laundry" too…

"Ron will go under 4 against Euro, all problems will be solved soon"
In the same context, I already read the first articles which predict Ron going under 4 (for 1 Euro), presenting a situation where all the problems are more or less solved. The exports are up (because of Dacia and few more strong companies), the Stock Market will go up over 70% (from today's levels, I guess), the developers of Real Estate projects will rise their prices (inspired, I guess, by the same wise consultants who proposed to them to develop projects with double prices than the ones of today – blaming the market after…), the owners of properties will sell with much higher prices and everything will return to its 2006 – 2007 status! Everything?

Everything is better, except… reality
Yes, everything, except reality… All the problems that we described in the last quarter of 2009 are still here with us. Some of them are even worse today, due to the political instability that the country lived until the new Government to swear.

• The economical crisis deepened furthermore. All serious analysts expect more people to lose their jobs this year (unfortunately).
• The profits shrinked in 2009 = less taxes to be paid in 2010.
• The money by IMF will soon be over, after the last trances. And it has to be given back very soon (replaced by other, much more expensive loans).
• The Government needs cash = it will take money from the market, reducing the cash flow of everyone, who will cut off his expenses too (vicious circle).
• The insolvency ratio will increase, as (except the crisis) we notice the symptom of hundreds of "big serious businessmen" abandoning their companies, without fighting to keep them alive.
• The problem with the Trade Registry is an active bomb in the basis of real economy today, with the business environment blocked. I read that there were measures in this direction and I am waiting for the results. I really hope to get over this soon, because I hear people applying today and receiving a hearing after 8 – 12 months!
• Regarding Real Estate, almost everyone continues behaving as he used to. The majority of people simply try to trick the others, while the banks are very suspicious and still too many people refuse to open their eyes and see the reality around them.

Problems are not solved by nice, flattering words, but by work, decisions and reforms
My friends in multinational companies continue betting that Ron will decline this year, over 4,5 / 1 euro, reaching the area of 4,8 – 5. The country needs to realize its actual situation (which is far away from "nice", but still it is better than many others and it allows to all serious people to earn money on the long run).

We will not solve our problems just by happy, positive thoughts. I agree with them, but I would prefer to see them combined with some actions too. Not only by the Government, but by every one of us, as we are all part of the problem. If we don't move on, undertaking measures and changing behavior so as to restart the economy, absorb European Funds and attract major Direct Foreign Investments to return, things will get worse.

The solution is in our hands, this year, the following months.