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\n\t During the last 40 days I have been presenting parts of my prediction for the year to come in many interviews or panels I participated. While stating my opinion, I received the feedback of tens of people, who agreed or disagreed with what I think. Meanwhile the world economic crisis prepares to enter in a new phase, with different characteristics than the previous two phases we all lived during the last 15 months. After the sudden collapse and the continuous drop, we enter now to the fragile stability with some drops of recovery. But these are for the rest of the world, not Romania…
\n\t So, let me share with you what I expect to happen in Romania during 2010…\n<\/p>\n
\n\tPart 4: 2009: A year full of global speculation<\/strong> \n\t Which were the "tricks" for big profits during 2009? \n\tOne of the reasons dollar was down \n\tAttacking against local currencies – Romanian case \n\tSo what about Romania in 2010? Part 4 to read part 1, click here to read part 2, click here to read part 3, click here to read part 5, click here to read part 6, click here to read part 7, click here to read part 8, click here During the last 40 days I have been presenting parts of my prediction for the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":59454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[216,17,204,236],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1985"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1985"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1985\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1985"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1985"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1985"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n\tand refusal for long term investments<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n
\n\t <\/strong>During 2009, there were 3 strategies which proved to be correct: One was investing in stocks<\/strong>, almost everywhere in the world. Since the lowest levels of March, today we witness profits of 50 – 500% for almost every share, especially the "blue chips". The question is "who could predict and risk investing in stocks, when most people were afraid that stocks could even collapse. Well, I am not an expert in this market, I avoided investing myself as well. If you want, I can interview someone who knows more and share with you his secrets. (But I usually search for real values, not artificial ones. This is why I prefer properties, a safer long term investment).
\n\t The second option for big profits was the famous "carry trade", an old technique, which revived this year<\/strong>. The effects of this investment method were very clear in many emerging countries. What is "carry trade"?<\/strong> With few words: Institutional investors, with access to financing in international level, borrow money from USA (with 0% interest) or Europe (1% Euribor) and invest the money in other countries, where the interests are higher<\/strong>. For example, they borrowed from FED in USA and after they bought state bonds issued by emerging markets. Romania was one of them, with Brazil being the first one and many others have followed. So, they borrowed with 0% and invested the money with 4-5%. Like this they create wealth without really risking their own capital<\/strong>.\n<\/p>\n
\n\t <\/strong>This year, some of the investors who practiced "carry trade" invested a lot in the emerging stock markets too, receiving profits without any significant risk. But also they used this leverage so as to bet against the American <\/strong>dollar. So, they borrowed by FED, so as to press dollar down! This is one of the reasons why dollar lost ground this year, falling to around 1 euro = 1,5 dollar. In the same time, the local currencies of Brazil, Indonesia etc saw their currencies rising by over 30%. This is why Brazil was forced to take measures against speculators in its national stock market, after a crazy year and the index rising by almost 80%!
\n\t All these did not happen in Romania in a great extend. Now that the year ends and everyone found out the "game of the year", the speculators will change strategies again. The reason? This is a very dangerous game and can not last for long. Soon things chance and noone can guarantee that all these emerging markets will be safe for the investors. Especially the ones out of European Union may have serious problems with their loans<\/strong>. And their loans are mainly the bonds that all these investors bought this year.\n<\/p>\n
\n\t <\/strong>All these major international financial institutions suffered a lot during the last 15 months. But there is not any reason to feel pity for them.<\/strong> They did not stay… "calm" during this period. They continued their strategy of attacking to any country that looks weak, trying to force it to go down and them to bet and make profits out of this procedure. <\/strong>They did it with currencies, with bonds, with credit default swaps (cds), everything that can be traded, can be manipulated…
\n\t So, when they spot a country with problems, they start with their reports against it, they create the necessary "atmosphere" and then they attack, the country's bonds massively, so as to force the country to give them better prices so as to maintain them, to increase its interbanking interest etc. In the end, they exit after few months with several hundreds of millions of dollars as profits, while the country suffers for years, until to recover.
\n\t <\/strong>During the last months of 2008 but also in 2009 they tried the same against Romania too. I am happy that the Governor of BNR proved to be once more a good captain and the country fought back, burning all the ones who wanted to bet and profit from its fall. But these attacks will return soon…\n<\/p>\n
\n\t <\/strong>In this unstable environment, with gold reaching historical heights, investors avoiding Real Estate and production expansions, focusing on stock – bond – commodities trading, what are the options for Romania, so as to become again part of the game and enter in a stable period of growth?
\n\t Tomorrow…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"