\n\t\n<\/p>\n
\n\t During the last 40 days I have been presenting parts of my prediction for the year to come in many interviews or panels I participated. While stating my opinion, I received the feedback of tens of people, who agreed or disagreed with what I think. Meanwhile the world economic crisis prepares to enter in a new phase, with different characteristics than the previous two phases we all lived during the last 15 months. After the sudden collapse and the continuous drop, we enter now to the fragile stability with some drops of recovery. But these are for the rest of the world, not Romania…
\n\t So, let me share with you what I expect to happen in Romania during 2010…\n<\/p>\n
\n\t Part 6: 2010: The problem is not solved<\/strong> \n\t The country continues falling (if you did not notice this around you). \n\t While the world economy is not safe yet, a vicious circle is threatening Romania's economy \n\tNot irrelevant: Greece enters into trouble… Part 6 to read part 1, click here to read part 2, click here to read part 3, click here to read part 4, click here to read part 5, click here to read part 7, click here to read part 8, click here During the last 40 days I have been presenting parts of my prediction for the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":59454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[216,17,204,236],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1993"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1993"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1993\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n\tjust because time has passed<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n
\n\t <\/strong>One of my best friends is stubborn like me<\/strong>. He has an important background, a lot of experience for his age and very strong connections in Real Estate world, with people who know more than the average crowd. We spent the first 8 months of 2009 having a major disagreement: He was saying that things are improving and he feels it around him, while I was saying that the situation was deteriorating, as I was perceiving it<\/strong>. His ability to open doors that others keep finding sealed gave him the impression that this is something usual for many more other people in the market too. Finally in the last part of the year we agreed<\/strong> (and I expect us to disagree again when predicting what will happen in 2009…)
\n\t In the same time, I love listening to the opinions of people who consider that the problem is somehow solved in Romania<\/strong> and starting with 2010 things will get better. "Because we reached bottom, we can not go any lower"<\/strong>, as they claim. But who said that we reached the bottom? Ourselves, because we got tired of the problems during the last one year? The figures which are "less bad" than the previous ones?\n<\/p>\n
\n\t <\/strong>I find this opinion very interesting, because when the whole world is in trouble<\/strong>, President Obama informed his people that "growth may delay", most of the world's problems remain unsolved and a second, lower bottom is possible to happen, some people try to convince us that this country will be the world's exception<\/strong>. I wish this to be true, but I would not bet my home on this scenario…
\n\t Things look clear. The world continues trembling and (just) a fragile stabilization has been established<\/strong>. In the same time Romania had many other problems which caused the contraction o GDP, the problems in real economy etc. Which of these problems were solved in the last 12 months?<\/strong> The funds by E.U. remain not absorbed, the Foreign Direct Investments are lower than the past (like all around the world) and the model of the country "we create growth by pouring money coming from abroad" does not work<\/strong>. Meanwhile people lost their jobs, companies closed and a dangerous vicious circle is knocking our door<\/strong>, with lower consumption, which brings less investments, which bring less jobs, which bring lower consumption again etc.\n<\/p>\n
\n\t <\/strong>One of the strongest economic partners of Romania today, Greece, is in really difficult situation<\/strong>. The country has major problems, much more serious than the Romanian ones, and a difficult period of 2 years is expected<\/strong>. Being one of the strongest importers and exporters to Romania, having invested here over 6 billion euro and controlling banks etc, Greece may cause problems to Romania too. Not that Greeks want this, but in the worst case scenario for them, they will have to reduce their exposure all around their international activities and Romania is included in them. Except Greece, where Greeks have invested the biggest sums of money<\/strong> (in their own country), the second place in the world where Greeks have invested so much is Romania!<\/strong> Not any other country. So, this is a factor which may cause unexpectable problems too.
\n\t (It is not that I am Greek, but it is not bad to keep in mind that Greeks have trusted Romania more than any other country in the world, with actions and money invested).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"