press here<\/a><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\tNegative scenario for Romania:
\n\tExiting the crisis during: Second half of 2012 – First half 2013<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\tPossible bad news (worldwide): <\/strong>\n<\/p>\n\n- \n\t\tThe European countries will not exit their own crisis any time soon.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tBritish elections will result to an unstable government and the country will face major difficulties.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tChancellor Merkel will see her Government falling and the political instability will keep Germany in a negative economic trend for long time.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tThe "Greek" crisis will be replaced by the "Portuguese", "Spanish", "Italian", "English" etc.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tCountries at the Baltic region (such as Latvia) will default, causing new trouble and losses for banks. "Spill over effect" at its worst version.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tThe Chinese Real Estate bubble will burst, causing shivers all over the world.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tGoldman Sachs scandal, the bankrupsy of more banks and the more expensive dollar (as Euro will decline) will block the recovery of the fragile, overdebted American economy.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tCrude Oil prices will return to their 2008 highs, over 100 – 120 Dollars \/ Barrel, blocking the World economy for good.\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n\tPossible bad news (Romania):<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n\n- \n\t\tRomanian economy mainly exports to Eurozone countries. If Euro will further decline, Romania will become more expensive and its products will lose ground towards the European ones.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tForeign Direct Investments will continue declining, causing less new investments and jobs.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tNew political instability or any problem regarding the Governor of BNR will immediately impact to the economy.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tUnemployment will reach 10%, as companies will avoid hiring.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tSmall and Medium Enterprises will suffer.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tBankrupsies will continue rising, causing major problems to the market and serious headaches to the banks.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tBanks will remain "defensive" for a long time, avoiding credit expansions.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tRomanian Banks will have to face their own (carefully hidden) reality. Non performing loans (covered by assets whose value has collapsed) amount to several hundreds of millions (or few billions) of Euro. If things will continue for a long time, this bubble will burst and cause a new cycle of problems.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tBankers will remain skeptical towards almost all investments.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tMost of the major public projects will end up frozen.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tThe field of alternative energy will be underdeveloped, due to "uncertainties".\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n\tNegative scenario. A slow process:<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n\n- \n\t\tEuropean economies will remain unstable during 2010.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tThey will continue their ups and downs for the first half of 2011 too, as new challenges will rise.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tIn the second half of 2011 they will enter into a weak "road to recovery".\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tThey will boost during 2012.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tRomania will follow them, starting with the second half of 2012.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tIn the first half of 2013 Romanian will accelerate as well.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tBanks will not open their gates until 2012.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tThe Real Estate market will remain "frozen" for another two years or more.<\/strong>\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n\t"More realistic" scenario for Romania:<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n\n\tExiting the crisis during: Second half of 2011 – First half of 2012<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\tWhat can happen:<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n\n- \n\t\tEuropean economies will start growing until the end of 2010, or maximum during the first half of 2011.\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n- \n\t\tRomanian economy will follow Europe with 3 – 9 months delay, but things will definitely improve during 2011.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tThe last quarter of 2010, maybe also the first quarter of 2011 too, will be the most difficult months for the Romanian people.\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tAs of 2011, serious local companies will see their revenues increased not because of higher demand, but because of the thousands of bankrupsies that their competitors face. (This is always the first sign of recovery, companies grow by taking over the market shares of the ones who didn't make it).\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tRomanian banks will unfreeze lending only during 2011. They will move with very careful steps and the procedure will be slow (bankers claim that they learned by their mistakes).\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tThe Real Estate market will continue being "idle", at least until the end of 2010.<\/strong>\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tThe owners' attempt to raise the prices without clients will cause the extension of blockage for several more months. <\/strong>\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tRomanian Real Estate market will remain a "Buyer's market" for at least another 12 – 15 months. <\/strong>\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tWhen the Romanian economy will start growing, the Real Estate market will try to immediately benefit and raise the prices, but again investors will not follow. <\/strong>\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tTo cut the long story short: Things will be better during 2011. If logic will be the main factor of every decision, 2011 will be the first "good year" since 2007. If people will be greedy, we will see serious growth only during 2012.<\/strong>\n\t<\/li>\n
- \n\t\tIf at any moment Romanians raise their prices too much, the market will be blocked again, delaying the economy as well.<\/strong>\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n\tPS.1. I am closer to the last scenario, which I consider more probable to happen. I would give to it 60% chances, while I would give 20% chances to the other two scenarios.\n<\/p>\n
\n\tPS.2. I declare that I am not involved into Romanian politics. I don't know any politician and I don't have any friends or enemies between them. The text above is just my personal approach, trying to avoid any political talk. Time will tell if my predictions are right or wrong. This does not mean that I am against or that I support the Government or anyone else.\n<\/p>\n
\n\t <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Part 2 (to read part 1, click here) During 2005 – 2007, I was positive about Romania's future, considering the country as an almost "ideal" place to invest in. In 2007 (November 23rd interview to "Curierul National" newspaper) I stated for the first time that part of the Real Estate prices during 2008 will go […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":59454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[216,17,204,236],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4071"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4071"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4071\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4071"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4071"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4071"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}