{"id":4660,"date":"2010-06-28T06:59:30","date_gmt":"2010-06-28T03:59:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/en\/?p=4660"},"modified":"2015-01-26T20:06:05","modified_gmt":"2015-01-26T18:06:05","slug":"unfortunately-i-was-proved-correctwhat-does-it-mean-24-vat-for-the-real-estate-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/2010\/06\/28\/unfortunately-i-was-proved-correctwhat-does-it-mean-24-vat-for-the-real-estate-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Unfortunately I was proved correctWhat does it mean 24% VAT for the Real Estate market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\tAbout 50 days ago I had written an article where I was explaining to you what it means for the Romanian economy and the Real Estate market in specific a possible rise of VAT. I still remember the number of people who told me that I am crazy and that this is not possible to happen. Unfortunately, after the Supreme Court&#039;s decision, the part of VAT has already come. And I strongly doubt if it will be the only measure, I am expecting more to come, as there are no policies to really solve problems. So, no policies = no solutions = more problems = more debts = more taxes and a vicious circle has started&#8230;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<a href=\"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/en\/2010\/05\/06\/no-martini-no-partyno-serious-measures-no-serious-results\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>(No Martini = no party)&nbsp;No serious measures = no serious results<\/strong><\/a>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\tAnyway, this is not something that I can change or control and it is not my business to judge decisions and people. Let us focus on the real meaning of this VAT increase and let us remember together what I had written back then. I will let you read the original text, writing for VAT of 25% (as this was the news at that time) but the announced measure described a rise &quot;only&quot; up to 24%.<!--more-->\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">\n\t<strong>05.05.2010<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">\n\t<a href=\"http:\/\/http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/en\/imf-asks-vat-and-tax-on-profits-to-skyrocketwhat-does-this-mean-for-the-real-estate-market\/\"><strong>IMF asks VAT and tax on profits to skyrocket<br \/>\n\tWhat does this mean for the Real Estate market?<\/strong><\/a>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\tDid you read the news yesterday? The International Monetary Fund asks Romania to drastically increase the VAT tax, from 19% up to 25%. Also the tax on profit is proposed to rise from 16% to 20%. Nothing is sure yet but I guess that during May we will realize that 2010 will be more difficult than many (dreamers) expected.\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t<strong>&quot;But why is it still falling?&quot;<\/strong><br \/>\n\tAfter reading the bad news, many of you will question yourselves: &quot;But why?&quot; Just few days ago, I was explaining to you why the Romanian economy will continue being in crisis during 2010. Actually I am amazed that even until few days ago I kept on reading that the economy will rise. I had remained negative regarding this year and the reasons are very simple:\n<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify\" type=\"disc\">\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\tThe Romanian economy has still not started to absorb European Grants.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\tEuropean Grants are still not accessible by small and medium enterprises.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\tThe world economic crisis is still here.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\tIn the same time Europe is still suffering.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\tBanks still don&#039;t lend.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\tOr they lend with very high interest rates.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\tWe still have not witnessed any major economic reforms.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\tUnemployment rate keeps on rising.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\tReal Estate prices have risen, without any clients to follow!\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\tPeople&#039;s behavior remains the same\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: left\">\n\t<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/en\/2010\/04\/21\/romanian-economy-keeps-on-falling-while-dreamers-keep-on-waiting-millions-to-knock-at-their-door\/\" target=\"_blank\">(<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/en\/romanian-economy-keeps-on-falling-while-dreamers-keep-on-waiting-millions-to-knock-at-their-door\/\">To read the article with the title &quot;Romanian economy keeps on falling, while dreamers keep on waiting millions to knock at their door&quot;<\/a><\/strong>)\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t<strong>What is going to happen with Romanian economy?<\/strong><br \/>\n\tAs I had explained to you last week, this is a very difficult year for everyone in the world, Romania included. Things are complicated and in case the taxes will increase that much (25% VAT and 20% tax on profits), there is no doubt that the economy will lose ground during this year as well.\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left\">\n\t(<a href=\"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/en\/2010\/04\/27\/when-is-this-crisis-going-to-endthe-positive-scenario-for-romanian-market\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>My scenario for the Romanian economy<\/strong><\/a>)\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t<strong>VAT at 25%. What does it mean for the Real Estate market?<\/strong><br \/>\n\tLet us assume that the VAT will rise to 25% and the tax on profit will climb to 20%. Now let us examine all the cases and you will decide by yourselves:\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"unIndentedList\" style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<li>\n\t\t<span class=\"list\"><strong>The office rents will be charged with 25% VAT instead of 19%.<\/strong> Do you think that the tenants will be happy with this news? Isn&#039;t it probable that they will ask a lower rent? For the empty properties, doesn&#039;t this mean that their prices will freeze, or that they will slightly decrease?<\/span>\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t<span class=\"list\"><strong>The industrial rents will feel the same impact<\/strong>. Isn&#039;t it normal for the prices to block in this segment too?<\/span>\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t<span class=\"list\"><strong>The apartments with value over 385.000 ron (around 90.000 Euro) will be sold with VAT 25% and not 19%. <\/strong>So<strong> <\/strong>the clients will find it even more difficult to purchase an apartment except the ones under 385.000, which (hopefully) will continue being charged with 5% VAT.<\/span>\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t<span class=\"list\"><strong>The price for an apartment of 100.000 Euro will rise from 119.000 to 125.000<\/strong>. An apartment of 200.000 Euro will cost 250.000 (including the new VAT) instead of 238.000 Euro today etc.<\/span>\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t<span class=\"list\"><strong>Noone will believe that &quot;it is just a technical issue, as the VAT can be reimbursed&quot;<\/strong>. Unfortunately there are very big delays in this issue.<\/span>\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t<span class=\"list\"><strong>The developers will face a dual shock<\/strong>: Higher VAT = more difficult sales and higher taxes = less profit = less money to return to the banks = more pressure.<\/span>\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t<span class=\"list\"><strong>The owners who sell a property and pay 16% will have to pay 20%<\/strong>. So they will end up with less money in their pocket. <\/span>\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t<span class=\"list\"><strong>The overall business environment will be damaged, as the country will become significantly more expensive<\/strong>. <\/span>\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t<span class=\"list\"><strong>Isn&#039;t it obvious that the bankers will not be very happy to find out all these? <\/strong>It is.<strong> <\/strong>So, forget any discussion about injecting more loans to the market. They are reserved and they will remain like this.<\/span>\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left\">\n\t<strong>Overall result: The market will freeze for good if 25% VAT will be charged on Real Estate transactions<\/strong><br \/>\n\tWe already had many problems with owners who were raising the prices without having any client to follow (!). (<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/en\/2010\/04\/20\/amazing-too-many-owners-rose-their-prices-without-having-any-client-to-sell-to-why-who-benefits-who-loses-what-is-coming-up\/\" target=\"_blank\">You can check my analysis on this here<\/a><\/strong>)\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\tNow things will worsen. VAT 25% will freeze the market for sure. At least until the end of the year, no one will be in a hurry to purchase a property under these conditions. The only possibility for him will be to invest if the price will be very low, not the seller&#039;s asking price.\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\tI remind you that for every transaction concluded, there are too many people obtaining income and the State collects taxes from many indirect sources as well. 25% VAT on Real Estate transactions will cause several collateral damages. Let us wait and see what will finally happen&#8230;\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\tPS.1 Don&#039;t forget that a possible VAT explosion will cause serious problems in the lives of millions of people. I hope they will be taken care of as well, as it will be too much for them&#8230;\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\tPS.2. Once more, I declare that I am not involved into Romanian politics. I don&#039;t know any politician and I don&#039;t have any friends or enemies between them. The text above is just my personal approach, trying to avoid any political talk. Time will tell if my predictions are right or wrong. This does not mean that I am against or that I support the Government or anyone else\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>About 50 days ago I had written an article where I was explaining to you what it means for the Romanian economy and the Real Estate market in specific a possible rise of VAT. I still remember the number of people who told me that I am crazy and that this is not possible to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":59454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[216],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4660"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4660"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4660\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}