{"id":5319,"date":"2010-09-20T09:38:20","date_gmt":"2010-09-20T07:38:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/en\/?p=5319"},"modified":"2015-01-26T20:16:45","modified_gmt":"2015-01-26T18:16:45","slug":"romanian-real-estate-market-why-2011-will-be-much-more-difficult-than-2010-part-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/2010\/09\/20\/romanian-real-estate-market-why-2011-will-be-much-more-difficult-than-2010-part-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Romanian Real Estate market: Why 2011 will be much more difficult than 2010… (Part 1)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tPart 1<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t(to read part 2, click here<\/a>)<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tSince the beginning of the world economic crisis, I noticed the following approach of Romanian society (politicians, media and people) towards the problems:
\n\t• In the beginning they tried to deny the truth. "There is no problem, we are protected" etc.
\n\t• Then they said that there is no major problem. "We will solve the issues without many difficulties".
\n\t• After that, they started announcing dates, after which the market would start growing again.
\n\t• These dates kept being changed, from "Easter" to "summer', then "after summer", then "after Christmas" and again "after Easter"…
\n\t• Meanwhile, a "witch-hunt" started, with the crowd searching for the guilty ones. "The politicians', "the businessmen", "the foreigners" and lately "the banks", or "all of them together". (No, there are no mirrors in Romania, no one can see himself as part of the problem…)<\/strong>Deny the truth = delay the solution of our problems…<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAll the above mentioned behaviours are mainly a denial of truth. In the beginning we tried to pretend that there is no crisis. Then we were sure that it will finish soon. When reality proved to be different, it was time to search for the ones to blame. Never with intention to find the guilty ones, solve their mistakes and clean up the mess, restarting the Romanian economy and the Real Estate market. Unfortunately the approach remains different: We search for guilty ones, in order to become upset on them and forget the reality. Denying the truth, we only succeed to delay the solution of our problems…\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe new prediction: The crisis ends in 2011<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tI talk with people during September and I see them ready to believe a new "story": "The crisis will end in 2011 and the Real Estate market will start increasing next year". I was the one who was expecting the crisis to reach its worst moment this year as well, but as the politicians of this country (and most of the people as well) don't really do much about it. Everything is delayed…\n<\/p>\n

\n\tI hear people expecting the prices to grow again next year, predicting "rebounds" and "climbs", refusing to accept the offers they have today (which will be too generous comparing to the future ones…) They are… tired of the crisis and they try once more to create a "better psychology", thinking that truth and reality can be manipulated just by wishes. (Like the ones in the beginning of the year who predicted strong supply and prices to rise by 10%. Exactly what happened afterwards, no?)\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe main reasons why 2011 will be more difficult than 2010<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tI am sorry to sound rude and to "destroy the atmosphere", but I prefer my readers to know my honest opinion. Like this they will be able to compare it to the future facts and they will know if I tried to manipulate them or protect them.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t2011 will be more difficult than 2010 and this is why:\n<\/p>\n

\n\t1. Foreign Direct Investments are down = nothing better to expect in the near future.<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tRomania grew when Foreign Direct Investments were poured in the country. During the "golden" years we had about 7 – 10 billion Euro \/ year entering in Romania, creating jobs, paying taxes, sustaining growth and improving the economy, brightening people's future. Usually an investment needs about 18 months to reach maturity (in Greece it is 3 – 6 years, so Romania is better). But the investments in 2010 are much less than 2009, which were less than 2008. Without strong investments by foreigners, the economy will remain blocked. (And investments will start increasing from today, we will start watching their effects during 2012…)\n<\/p>\n

\n\t2. Exports are weak, except Dacia, Nokia and few more companies<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tRomanians don't have a strong national policy for exports. Today Romanian exporters face many trouble (as they complain themselves) and they don't succeed to take advantage of the country's advantages. Except Dacia (which is doing great, making all Romanians proud of it) Nokia and few more major companies, we don't have signs that the vast majority of exporters (especially the small and medium sized companies) will increase their sales, bringing money into country.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tTomorrow:<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAnother 5 reasons.<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWhen we expect to "exit the tunnel"<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Part 1 (to read part 2, click here) Since the beginning of the world economic crisis, I noticed the following approach of Romanian society (politicians, media and people) towards the problems: • In the beginning they tried to deny the truth. "There is no problem, we are protected" etc. • Then they said that there […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":59454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[216,17,236],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5319"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5319\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}