{"id":5656,"date":"2010-11-24T10:32:09","date_gmt":"2010-11-24T08:32:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/en\/?p=5656"},"modified":"2015-01-26T20:16:44","modified_gmt":"2015-01-26T18:16:44","slug":"romanian-economy-keeps-on-falling-while-dreamers-keep-on-waiting-millions-to-knock-at-their-door-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/2010\/11\/24\/romanian-economy-keeps-on-falling-while-dreamers-keep-on-waiting-millions-to-knock-at-their-door-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Romanian economy keeps on falling, while dreamers keep on waiting millions to knock at their door"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\tThis article was published 21.04.2010\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t<strong>German and French &quot;false signs&quot;<\/strong><br \/>\n\tThe first &quot;false sign&quot; was during September 2009. German government had elections ahead (September 22<sup>nd<\/sup>), this is why they injected cash into consumption, giving 2.500 euro \/ car to purchase. Due to this policy, Dacia had historical records of exports and German economy succeeded to have an anemic growth of +0,4% in the second quarter of the year. After elections (by&#8230; coincidence) the economy turned negative again, as the crisis is much deeper than people thought initially. The French economy was exactly in the same path, as they had more or less the same measures (and problems). When we heard the news here in Romania, some people started predicting: &quot;Very soon it will finish here too&quot;&#8230;\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t<strong>&quot;After elections you will see&quot;&#8230;<\/strong><br \/>\n\tThen we had the Romanian elections. Due to them, we started hearing people saying that the last quarter of 2009 will be the first one with positive growth. Then some others connected &quot;the end of crisis&quot; with the elections. They said this so many times, that in the end they&#8230; believed it as well!<!--more-->Next to them, plenty of property owners followed, who either rose their prices or they were waiting the elections to pass, counting the days one by one. &quot;After elections you will see, the market will be exploded&quot; they were saying to people who were contacting them for their property.\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t<strong>&quot;Ron is up. Romania has exited the crisis&quot;<\/strong><br \/>\n\tIn the beginning of 2010 many market players started&#8230; dreaming of visions. They started stating that Romania will rise fast this year, leaving back the problems of 2009. In the same context, several business people in Real Estate expressed their certainty (=hope) that the market would go up during this year. The well known (nowadays) Greek problems hurt Euro currency and Ron appreciated unexpectedly. From 1 Euro = 4,25 Ron we saw it even at the levels of 4,06. So, too many people were sure: &quot;Ron is up. Finally, Romania has exited the crisis&quot;.\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t<strong>But why doesn&#039;t this crisis end?<\/strong><br \/>\n\tRomanian economy was announced last week to have remained in recession, for the sixth consecutive quarter. Today, too many people are really disappointed. They see their hopes proven wrong once more and they realize that the future is uncertain. This is a stressful feeling, by default. But when people felt that the crisis has ended and they still see it in front of them, as part of their lives, their fear grows. And they keep on asking: &quot;Why doesn&#039;t this crisis end?&quot;\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t<strong>10 simple reasons why the crisis will continue during 2010.<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify\" type=\"disc\">\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\t<strong>The Romanian economy has still not started to absorb European Grants<\/strong>. For various reasons, the level of absorption is very low. Without these billions of euro being injected into the market, we should not expect serious improvement.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\t<strong>European Grants are still not accessible by small and medium enterprises<\/strong>. If small companies can not easily absorb Grants, then they will not hire, or produce. The whole system will remain blocked. And we need these companies to activate, in order to achieve sustainable growth.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\t<strong>The world economic crisis is still here<\/strong>. Yes, USA has started moving out of it, but this is a fragile situation that we all live. The latest scandal of Goldman Sachs showed this to everyone. China is ready to enter into major trouble with its Real Estate bubble being ready to burst. Difficult year worldwide&#8230;\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\t<strong>In the same time Europe is still suffering<\/strong>. Romania follows Europe and its economical circle, as most of its exports are directed to European countries. So, Europe still suffers. Merkel is in trouble, Sarkozy too. Gordon Brown may rank third in his elections in May. The only country with positive growth during 2009, Poland, still cries for its dead President. Greece entered in the last phase of its drama, but another 3-4 countries are ready to follow. Does this sound like an economic revival to you?\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\t<strong>Banks still don&#039;t lend<\/strong>. Most of them are careful, for their own reasons. Especially if we talk about Real Estate, their doors are almost&#8230; sealed to the investors who ask for financing. They are expected to &quot;relax&quot; a bit during the year, but nothing impressive will happen.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\t<strong>Or they lend with very high interest rates. <\/strong>Several<strong> <\/strong>leasing companies &quot;offer financing&quot;, but if we talk about Real Estate, their interest rates are tremendously high: 8% &#8211; 14%. Only someone desperate will borrow at this cost. So, this domain remains frozen too.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\t<strong>We still have not witnessed any major economic reforms<\/strong>. Bureaucracy remains very strong, blocking several investments. We struggled to solve the problem with the Trade Registry and other basics. I am sure that everyone agrees that there are more to be done.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\t<strong>Unemployment rate keeps on rising<\/strong>. Less than the past, but we still have more companies firing than hiring. And we expect the State to fire tens of thousands as well.\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\t<strong>Real Estate prices have risen, without any clients to follow<\/strong>! This can really cause an even worse economic landing. Without the Real Estate market to move, the State will lose hundreds of millions of taxes, even more people will lose their jobs and everything will worsen. While some owners will wait next to their phone, waiting it to ring&#8230;\n\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"list\">\n\t\t<strong>People&#039;s behavior remains the same<\/strong>. Let us forget that I am a foreigner. My Romanian friends complain for the same problems, the same wrong behavior, the same issues that they used to complain. Too many people, a significant percentage of the society, continue living just for &quot;now&quot; (not even &quot;today&quot;). This used to be covered by the wealth spread to everyone. Now it is a problem and it hurts a lot. First of all, the ones who behave like this, even if they don&#039;t understand it.\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t(* The situation at the banking sector applies at 95% of investors. If someone has special relations or a very high profile, economically speaking, things are different)\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t<strong>When is it going to end?<\/strong><br \/>\n\tNot soon, this is for sure. It will continue during 2010. And as Romania does not move on fast, solving problems, opening opportunities etc, unfortunately I don&#039;t see things improving throughout the year. Most probably they will worsen a bit more, before they will stabilize.\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n\t<strong>What about the ones who still talk about &quot;super days coming in the following months&quot;, especially in Real Estate?<\/strong><br \/>\n\tI was discussing about this issue with a top banker yesterday and he replied to me like this: &quot;Some people dream a lot of erotic dreams and they confuse them with reality&quot;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This article was published 21.04.2010 German and French &quot;false signs&quot; The first &quot;false sign&quot; was during September 2009. German government had elections ahead (September 22nd), this is why they injected cash into consumption, giving 2.500 euro \/ car to purchase. Due to this policy, Dacia had historical records of exports and German economy succeeded to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":59454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[216,17,236],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5656"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5656"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5656\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5656"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5656"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5656"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}