A difficult end of the year<\/strong><\/p>\nThe last quarter of this year will be more difficult than we expected. Still it will be better than Q4 of 2010, but it will have nothing to do with the optimistic expectations of strong growth. Some people even expected this quarter to be the one that would mark the country’s entrance into prosperity. The weak economic growth (+0,2% in the first half of the year) can easily become a bit negative or bit more positive, as the local economy still has many problems to resolve.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
· The majority of banks continue not to lend, as many of them face several major problems.<\/p>\n
· Foreign Direct investments keep on falling<\/p>\n
· The economic figures improve, without people benefitting from this progress.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
But at the same time it seems that we have some positive news as well: It is my understanding that during the whole year and especially in the following weeks the preparations will finish and tens of tenders for public works will start. At the same time the authorities are prepared to launch tens of projects of European grants and structural funds.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
A difficult start of the year<\/strong><\/p>\nThe beginning of next year “promises” to be a difficult one, as it will probably mean the last phase of the Greek problem (if it won’t burst before). The financial markets are expected to be turbulent and we might face major positive or negative surprises.<\/p>\n
At the same time we expect this period to be the one when too many projects will be signed and prepared in order to start.<\/p>\n
A better 2012<\/strong><\/p>\nStarting with the second quarter of 2012, this year is considered to be better than the present one. Too many public works will start to be executed, plus tens of projects will inject money into the market, from structural funds and European grants.<\/p>\n
For many different minor reasons, the period will be better and we will also have an improved psychology as society (important before elections). But is it going to last long?<\/p>\n
I will be happily surprised to see the Romanian GDP grow to more than 1,5 – 2% in 2012, but it will be very difficult for Romania to increase its economy while the world will be in recession.<\/p>\n
A challenging beginning for 2013<\/strong><\/p>\n2013. This is the most critical year for Romania. Is it going to maintain its growth pace obtained in 2012? If the world will have solved its problems during next year, more or less Romania will be among the first ones to benefit. But what happens if it does not? How are we going to deal with potential changes on the local or national level?<\/p>\n
Summing up<\/strong><\/p>\nAfter a difficult 2011 (which was a bit better than 2010 though), I prepare for an “easier” 2012, without major surprises, just a small acceleration of growth. Right now the beginning of 2013 looks tough, but things might change a lot, in any direction. The “key” lies in the depth and length of the recession we will see in USA and several European countries.<\/p>\n
Is Greece the problem we are waiting to be solved?<\/strong><\/p>\nMany people keep on asking me this. It is normal, as a part of media speculates as much as possible on this issue. But I don’t think that all our problems will be arranged, once the Greek situation will be resolved one way or another. Greece is a nice excuse for lots of groups of interests. They are hiding behind (the very big indeed) Greek problem.<\/p>\n
What is your opinion?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
It was almost 18 months ago when I shared with you my opinion regarding the future of the Romanian economy. For those who have forgotten, during the beginning of 2010 there were too many people and media who were sure that we exited the crisis (the same ones who celebrated the end of the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":59454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[216,17,236],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8597"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8597"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8597\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8597"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8597"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.iliaspapageorgiadis.ro\/english\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8597"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}