Analysts: Exchange rate might vary between 4.4, 4.75 RON/EUR in 2013

There are various forecasts about the evolution of the RON vs. EUR exchange rate in 2013. Some analysts believe that the Romanian currency will not withstand the shocks and will significantly devaluate, while others expect the RON to hold steady, Money.ro reports.According to pessimists, the Romanian currency might end the year much weaker, at an exchange rate of 4.75 RON/EUR in December, 8 pc more than the present quotation. “The first quarter might be rather difficult for the national currency and, in general, this year could bring yet another devaluation, which we see as slight,” said Vlad Muscalu, senior economist ING Bank. The economists of other crediting institutions expect the exchange rate to be rather stable, although the RON will slightly depreciate. “We see it relatively stable, also depending on what will happen in terms of economic policies, at political level, in Romania and generally in Europe, in a context with many factors of influence at home and abroad. We expect the exchange rate to be somehow stable in the interval 4.45-4.65. I think we will have 4.55 at the end of the year,” considers Ionut Dumitru, chief economist Raiffeisen Bank. But there are also some very optimistic bankers which consider that the RON might pick up to the level of 4.3 units for a EUR. “The RON will be probably at an average exchange rate of 4.42 towards 4.45. A maximum rate of the RON, which I think could be occasionally reached, might be 4.3, but I think it will stay more in the zone of 4.4-4.5” says Melania Hancila, chief economist of Volksbank.Florian Libocor, the chief economist of BRD is optimistic about the prospects of the Romanian economy and currency, and even considers a moderate appreciation of the RON in the coming months. “Economic basics do not justify a depreciation of the RON at this moment,” the economist mentioned for Ziare.com. The analysts of UniCredit Tiriac anticipate for this year an average exchange rate of 4.58 RON/EUR. In its turn, Erste estimates that the RON will trade between 4.4 and 4.7 RON/EUR this year, and the capacity of the Ministry of Finance to access international markets in view of refinancing external debts that reach maturity will affect the evolution of the currency, Mediafax reports. The bank’s analysts also expect BNR to maintain the key interest at 5.25 pc, but they do not rule out an increase either.The RON was stable Monday in early trading, with the exchange rate oscillating slightly above 4.42 RON/EUR, and the National Bank of Romania posted a reference of 4.4223 RON/EUR, 0.28 Ban (RON 0.0028) lower.

Erste anticipates an increase of Romania’s GDP by 1.1 pc this year

The analysts of Erste anticipate for 2013 an increase of Romania’s GDP by 1.1 pc, as the crediting process will be driven by the renegotiation of an accord with the IMF and the continuation of the efforts aimed at improving the absorption rate of EU funds.Experts still await a relative stabilisation of the economic evolution in the next six months in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. As a consequence, the evaluation of the current situation in Slovakia and Poland is rather balanced or positive. The economic sentiment about Romania has significantly improved. Experts’ evaluation of the current economic situation improved for Croatia, Hungary and Romania.

Source: Nine O'clock